## May 2026 Macro Agent Advisor

> Generated: 2026-07-24 17:08  ·  Sample filter: from 2023-01  ·  Scope: latest available public-API values

### Bottom line

Most indicators softened versus the prior reading; the repair slope has slowed—watch demand and prices together.

### By sector

#### Sentiment

- **Official manufacturing PMI** at 50.00; fell from prior (50.30) by 0.30, in expansion territory.
- **Official non-manufacturing PMI** at 50.10; rose from prior (49.40) by 0.70, in expansion territory.

#### Consumption & employment

- **Retail sales YoY** at -0.6%; fell from prior (0.2%) by 0.8 ppt

#### Investment

- **FAI YoY** at -17.1%; fell from prior (-12.0%) by 5.1 ppt
- **Manufacturing FAI cumulative YoY** at -0.4%; fell from prior (1.2%) by 1.6 ppt

#### Real estate

- **Real estate investment cumulative YoY** at -16.2%; fell from prior (-13.7%) by 2.5 ppt; the property chain is still in negative growth.
- **Commodity housing sales area cumulative YoY** at -10.8%; fell from prior (-10.2%) by 0.6 ppt; the property chain is still in negative growth.

#### Supply

- **Industrial value-added YoY** at 4.5%; rose from prior (4.1%) by 0.4 ppt

#### Trade

- **Exports YoY** at 19.3%; rose from prior (14.0%) by 5.3 ppt
- **Imports YoY** at 27.4%; rose from prior (25.2%) by 2.2 ppt

#### Prices

- **CPI YoY** at 1.2%; down from prior (1.2%) by 0.0 ppt
- **PPI YoY** at 3.9%; up from prior (2.8%) by 1.1 ppt

#### Finance

- **M2 YoY** at 8.6%; down from prior (8.6%) by 0.0 ppt
- **Social financing increase** at 6245亿元; fell from prior (5.22万亿元) by 4.60万亿元
- **New RMB loans MoM YoY** at -16.2%; rose from prior (-553.2%) by 537.0 ppt

#### Fiscal

- **Fiscal revenue MoM YoY** at 6.6%; fell from prior (6.7%) by 0.1 ppt

### Cross-checks

- PPI (3.9%) is not below CPI (1.2%); watch cost pass-through into final prices.
- Exports YoY 19.3%, imports YoY 27.4%; imports more resilient / external demand softer.
- M2 YoY 8.6%, social financing 6245亿元; check whether credit growth matches the quantity signal.
- Industrial value-added YoY 4.5%, manufacturing PMI 50.0; output and survey sentiment can cross-validate.

### Watch next month

- Prices: can CPI/PPI improve together, avoiding “stable volume, weak prices”?
- Property: do sales and investment cumulative YoY converge; do funding sources stabilise?
- Credit: social financing / loan mix (corporate vs household) and pass-through to the real economy.
- External demand: do exports YoY and shipping gauges (e.g. BDI) move together?

### Data snapshot

| Sector | Indicator | Latest | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Consumption & employment | Retail sales YoY | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.8pt |
| Investment | FAI YoY | -17.1% | -12.0% | -5.1pt |
| Investment | Manufacturing FAI cumulative YoY | -0.4% | 1.2% | -1.6pt |
| Real estate | Real estate investment cumulative YoY | -16.2% | -13.7% | -2.5pt |
| Real estate | Commodity housing sales area cumulative YoY | -10.8% | -10.2% | -0.6pt |
| Supply | Industrial value-added YoY | 4.5% | 4.1% | +0.4pt |
| Prices | CPI YoY | 1.2% | 1.2% | +0.0pt |
| Prices | PPI YoY | 3.9% | 2.8% | +1.1pt |
| Finance | M2 YoY | 8.6% | 8.6% | +0.0pt |
| Finance | Social financing increase | 6245亿元 | 5.22万亿元 | -45995 |
| Finance | New RMB loans MoM YoY | -16.2% | -553.2% | +537.0pt |
| Trade | Exports YoY | 19.3% | 14.0% | +5.3pt |
| Trade | Imports YoY | 27.4% | 25.2% | +2.2pt |
| Sentiment | Official manufacturing PMI | 50.00 | 50.30 | -0.30 |
| Sentiment | Official non-manufacturing PMI | 50.10 | 49.40 | +0.70 |
| Fiscal | Fiscal revenue MoM YoY | 6.6% | 6.7% | -0.1pt |

### Data notes

- Social financing increase：使用 2026-04 观测作为近似

### Disclaimer

This page is auto-generated by **MeShare Agent** from public interfaces to aid reading the Data Dictionary / Charts Gallery. It **does not constitute investment advice**. Source revisions or release lags may briefly desync the brief from the latest prints; see the Data Dictionary for fetch details and definitions.